Hindsight Bias: Why “I Knew It All Along” Usually Isn’t True
Ever looked back after an event and thought “I knew that would happen!” even if you didn’t predict it? There’s a common bias at play.
It’s called hindsight bias — thinking past events were more predictable than they actually were. 👀
We All Have Hindsight Bias Sometimes
Hindsight bias is the tendency to see past events as more expected or inevitable only after they occurred. We believe we “knew it all along” even when we’re just rationalizing.💭
Benefits of Hindsight Bias?
Are there any advantages to hindsight bias? 🤔
Perhaps:
- It makes us feel smarter in retrospect 🧠
- Allows us to craft tidy narratives 📚
- Motivates planning for if it happens again ↩️
The Downsides
But thinking you ‘knew it all along’ can lead to problems like:
- Inaccurate future predictions 📈
- Neglecting unlikely scenarios 🚫
- Blaming others unfairly for not “knowing” 😤
An Exam Example
Imagine you predict you’ll score 80% on a difficult exam. 🧑🎓
But after, you scored 60%. Looking back, you now see why you never could have gotten 80% to begin with. 📝
This doesn’t mean you actually knew you’d bomb the test! But hindsight bias has you rationalize that you “knew” the facts all along after seeing the result. 🤦♂
